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In recent months, China’s official COVID-19 figures have baffled global observers. Despite a swift and extensive Omicron outbreak in late 2022 that saw millions infected across the country, the country now reports an inexplicably low number of active COVID-19 cases, especially considering its large population. In fact, China has announced that it will no longer report asymptomatic COVID-19 cases, claiming that the detection and reporting of such cases are increasingly "impossible to track" due to the country’s mass testing infrastructure becoming less effective. The decision to halt the reporting of asymptomatic cases is just one part of a broader shift in the country’s approach to COVID-19 following its abrupt abandonment of the “zero-COVID” strategy.
This article explores the many facets of China’s handling of the pandemic as it transitions from one of the world’s strictest COVID-19 policies to an era of greater normalization. We will delve into the reasons behind China’s low reported COVID numbers, the ongoing challenges of tracking cases, the implications of the government’s decision to stop reporting asymptomatic cases, and the broader picture of the country’s pandemic response and excess deaths.
The Shift From Zero-COVID to 'Living with COVID'
For much of the pandemic, China adhered to a stringent “zero-COVID” strategy, which included mass lockdowns, border closures, and an extensive testing and contact tracing system designed to contain the virus entirely within its borders. The strategy had its successes—particularly in the early days of the pandemic—but it also faced significant challenges, especially with the emergence of highly contagious variants like Omicron.
In late 2022, following widespread protests against harsh lockdowns and growing economic strain, China began dismantling its zero-COVID policies. The government abandoned its "COVID-zero" goals in favor of “living with COVID,” a shift that would eventually result in a wave of infections across the country. The swift and extensive Omicron outbreak, which spread rapidly through cities and rural areas alike, led to millions of people testing positive within a short period. However, despite this surge, the official reported numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths remained puzzlingly low, given the scale of the outbreak.
China's Low COVID Case Numbers: What’s Going On?
China's official COVID-19 figures have long been scrutinized for their apparent inaccuracy. The low reported numbers raise questions about whether they truly reflect the extent of the virus’s presence in the country. Several factors contribute to this phenomenon:
1. The End of Mass Testing and Reporting of Asymptomatic Cases:
China’s decision to stop reporting asymptomatic COVID-19 cases is one of the most significant shifts in its pandemic response. Asymptomatic cases, which were previously a significant part of the country’s reported case count, are no longer included in official statistics. This decision is rooted in the government’s claim that tracking asymptomatic cases has become increasingly difficult. Given the size of the population and the pervasive nature of the virus, mass testing and the accurate detection of asymptomatic individuals have become logistically challenging.
Moreover, since Omicron infections are often mild or asymptomatic in many individuals, the sheer volume of asymptomatic infections further complicates the process of accurately tracking the virus. Some experts argue that this decision reflects an attempt to understate the severity of the outbreak or to reframe the pandemic narrative as China moves towards normalcy.
2. The Downplay of COVID-19 Deaths:
The official death toll from COVID-19 in China also appears suspiciously low. While China has experienced a surge in infections, its reported deaths remain minimal compared to other countries with similar outbreaks. There are multiple theories as to why this might be the case. Some suggest that the Chinese government has been underreporting or categorizing deaths differently to downplay the true impact of the pandemic. The reliance on strict death reporting criteria—often focusing only on those who died directly from pneumonia caused by COVID-19, rather than including deaths from related complications or indirect causes—may result in an undercount.
Additionally, the lack of transparency around China’s COVID-19 reporting system and its control over data dissemination make it difficult to verify the accuracy of the death toll. Reports of overwhelmed hospitals and funeral homes suggest that the true toll of the virus could be much higher than what the government admits.
3. Mass Testing Infrastructure Strain:
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